Monday, August 31, 2009

Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Juan Manuel Marquez Almost Upon Us

And I can't help to think we might see an upset. When I say "upset," I'm referring to Juan Manuel Marquez getting the victory over Floyd Mayweather Jr. The closer the fight gets, the more I think Marquez has a real good shot at beating Mayweather.


Floyd Mayweather Jr. has been out of the ring a long time. Since December of 2007 to be exact. By the time Mayweather stands opposite of Marquez in his corner, it will almost be a full two years since he's fought. I don't care who you are; being absent from any professional sport for close to 2 years will cause an athlete to have rust. Like any sport there is "game speed." They often use this term for Football. Really, it's no different with boxing. Floyd Mayweather Jr. might be a gym rat - he might still be the greatest pound for pound fighter on the planet - but he will inevitably have rust. Especially in the first few rounds. Having rust for any amount of time, against a fighter of Juan Manuel Marquez's caliber is dangerous.

Marquez is no Ricky Hatton; he can brawl like Hatton, but unlike Hatton is a smart boxer and great counter-puncher. Juan just might be able to apply the right mix of aggressiveness, with boxing intelligence to get the job done against Floyd Mayweather.

But there is a flip side to all of this: Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a smart business man. For all of the talk about his greatness, it cannot be ignored that Floyd is great at "cherry picking," to best suit his chance of winning. He's always been a master at picking the right opponents at the right time. Do you think this time will be any different?

To me, it's a matter of weighing Floyd Mayweather's boxing intelligence and his bad gamble. Out of the two, what will be victorious in the end?

Clearly, Floyd Mayweather is banking on having the strength advantage and size advantage at 147 - a weight Juan Manuel Marquez has never fought at. Mayweather will be the bigger man in the ring come fight night by a long shot.

I don't think Juan Manuel Marquez will be able to carry his power effectively - enough to hurt Mayweather anyway. Another reason Mayweather wanted the fight to take place at welterweight. But will all of these advantages for Floyd be enough in the end?

I'm starting to think they wont. A 2 year lay off is a long time to be absent like I said earlier - and even though Mayweather will have the size advantage, I do not think that will be enough to overcome Marquez's style. I feel Juan Manuel Marquez will bring the perfect mix of aggressiveness and economical boxing. I'm thinking Juan wins most of the early rounds due to Mayweather's rust, with Mayweather winning the middle rounds. Down the stretch, I don't think Marquez will be that effective, but he'll outwork Floyd. This fight could be a real close fight like the De La Hoya-Mayweather bout; possibly a split decision. I do not feel either fighter will be in danger of being stopped. As a matter of fact, I have a feeling this fight will be lackluster. So as of now, unless I see something in training leading up to the fight, I'm going with Marquez by a close UD.

BUT, for the sake of boxing, I'm hoping Mayweather wins, to set up a mega-fight between either Manny or Cotto.

For the record, anytime I have ever went against Mayweather, he's proven me wrong and I ate crow in the end. Even so, now is the best opportunity to bet against Floyd. Enough cards are stacked against him.

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